Ecosystems worldwide are changing rapidly due to global environmental and climate change. Some of these ecosystems could be at risk of tipping because of these changes: for example, a savanna could shift to a desert if the amount of rainfall decreases too much. Characteristic of such tipping points is that they are irreversible, meaning that if rainfall were to increase again, the desert would not change back into a savanna.

However, recent discoveries suggest that ecosystems can avoid tipping points through spatial pattern formation of vegetation. Instead of changing into a desert, savanna vegetation reorganizes itself to form spatial patterns when rainfall decreases. This way, the savanna can ‘survive’ the change in rainfall. Hence, ecosystems might be more resilient than previously thought.

With our ERC-Synergy project, Pathways of resilience and evasion of tipping in ecosytems (RESILIENCE), we want to better understand how ecosystems can evade tipping points through spatial pattern formation. We focus on two specific biomes that are currently changing rapidly: savanna and tundra. We will use a combination of mathematical analyses, theoretical models, and analysis of new and existing data.

Our research will tell us more about which conditions and spatial patterns lead to the evasion and reversal of tipping. This knowledge will also teach us how human interventions can make ecosystems more resilient.